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Re: How often does an MT appear ?

Sun, 09 January 2011 02:05

gwellman

Petty Officer 1st Class

Messages: 66
Registered: January 2007
Location: Seattle, WA

Robert wrote on Sun, 31 July 2005 07:23

... I did 5 Testgames now and got 5 very different results (years of the MT from 40 to 150)

47/53/57/73/89/149
65/67/109
47/57/59/63/79/89/105/113/117/143
45/55/61/71/95/107/121/134/147
45/50/72/83/99/104/125/129/134/137/139/141

Especially the last game is interesting: 6 MTs in 16 turns!
I also remember a duel where we had 3MTs in 4 turns!

So I truly believe it is completly random... Confused

So, in the first 4 of those test games, the MT appeared 27 times in odd numbered years and once in an even numbered year.
In the fifth test game, it was 8 times on odd years and 4 times on even years.

Ok, anything is possible with random numbers, but seriously, that seems very far from random. It could be semi-random but with auto-correlation.

That seems unlikely just from a programming perspective though. The simplest rules would have been x% chance per year after 2440, subject to a maximum of N traders on the board at any time.

But Robert's results are still very far from the center of a binomial distribution. If you flip a coin 40 times and only get 5 tails ... it can happen, but it's not very probable.

Does anyone have better information on this? It seems to me that stats could be generated from the "specified tech level battlesim generator". That program meets a *lot* of M.T.s.

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		Re: Some answers about common MT questions... (long) By: BlueTurbit on Wed, 13 August 2003 18:11
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		Re: Some answers about common MT questions... (long) By: Robert on Wed, 07 January 2004 08:32
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		Re: Some answers about common MT questions... (long) By: craebild on Mon, 08 March 2004 12:13
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		Re: Some answers about common MT questions... (long) By: Micha on Fri, 06 August 2004 07:52
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		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: mazda on Mon, 04 April 2005 07:52
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		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: PricklyPea on Wed, 01 June 2005 17:04
		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: Robert on Sun, 31 July 2005 07:44
		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: PricklyPea on Mon, 01 August 2005 06:11
		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: Robert on Mon, 01 August 2005 06:46
		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: Robert on Sun, 31 July 2005 07:23
		Re: How often does an MT appear ? By: gwellman on Sun, 09 January 2011 02:05
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