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| Re: 3% or 3.5% |
Tue, 09 September 2003 06:27   |
|
 Robert |
 | Lt. Junior Grade |
Messages: 393
Registered: November 2002
Location: Dortmund, Germany | |
|
here it is: 
| Quote: |
ZooltaR wrote:
>
> I'm trying to get one SD (Hi Ward!) off my back. He laid several nice
> heavy minefields in my space, with minelayers nested iside. Attempt to
> sweep them "slowly and carefully" will probably result in a minefield
> blasting and the layers moving somewhere else. Thinking about possible
> solutions, I came to the following idea:
>
> Build several cheap destroyers with good firepower and sweeping
> capability. Send 6 of them to the minelayers at Warp 8 (minelayers are
> 60,51 ly away - so no warning for the SD) AS SEPARATE FLEETS. Speed is 2
> "warps" higher than safe, so each of them has 2% chance per ly travelled
> that it hits the mine. In other words, chances it will arrive undamaged
> are .98^60, or 0.2916025.
Nope. Not how it works. The chance of hitting a mine is not checked
seperately for each LY traveled. It is directly additive for each LY
traveled. The chance can go to 100% or more, in which case a hit is
certain (in this case, and warp 8 anything over 50 LY means an automatic
hit). As the help file notes at one point "you *will* hit a mine",
discussing how the percentages add.
But then how come I sometimes go some distance into them and sometimes
another? - might be the rejoinder. This I only gather from testing, and
is not in the help - apparently a "roll" is made for the hit chance, and
the ship goes until the roll is exceeded by the mine hit chance or until
it gets out of the field or completes movement.
So, again, the hit chance doesn't multiply, it *adds*. Which is much
worse. It means the SD can guareentee non-intercept, for example, by
staying far enough away through enough of the right type of mines.
As some one else noted, this is one nice use of speed traps for SD - a
small field near the minelayer will stop anyone going fast enough to
reach the layer. Though they are heavy enough that they will be less
well represented in your space than in his main belts.
So, chance that it will hit the mine is
> 0.7083975. But for all of them running on mine, the odds are 0.7083975^6
> - that's 0.1263751...
Nope. Its 1.00^ 5 = 1.00. As long as the first number is under 1.00 =
100%, mulitplying fleets can increase the chance one gets through - but
not after the adds get up to 100%. And darn expensive for high hit
chances otherwise (especially with heavies).
In the presence of heavies, go warp 7 or 6.  Not fast enough, you
say? Depends on how many fleets you have - if there are no gaps over 98
LY, warp 7 is fast enough. Of course, you need rather more to keep this
up year after year.
Note that as long as the "hit" chance is under 100%, you can try this,
getting several rolls to get one or two ships through. But this is
usually better for sweeping than for intercepting - because you can
control precisely how many mines you pass through.
BTW, playing SD myself and having the two extra warps of safe speed, I
have occasionally used this idea to sweep mines at warp 9 or 10. So
watch out for the SD blitz, because they are a *lot* better at this
particular tactic than you are. At warp 10 an SD is 4 warps above safe
speed, for a chance per LY of 1.2% vs. standard mines - that means the
"auto hit wall" is 83 LY deep into a minefield. At warp 9 is .9% per
LY, so there just isn't any wall (73% chance of a hit for each fleet if
the whole 81 LY distance is within the field - 5 fleets cuts the "none
get through" chance to around 21% - now that's some sweeping!).
Trying to intercept the layers will really upset you If the SD guy
is good, they move, and move unpredictable. The only thing you can be
sure of is that there will be mines between your interceptor and his
ending location.
Also, many small mining ships are better for SD than a few big ones.
They lay smaller fields, which are much better all around, and the ships
are light enough to run around fast. A side effect is that the ships
are cheap - about the cost of a simple DD; less at higher tech levels -
just from only putting two minelaying pods (not four) on the hull. He
can have as many as he needs before long, and can easily replace his
losses. The mines, not the layers, are the threat. It's about area
controlled, and attrition - all losses on both sides can be made up.
As for the sweeping class, if he has standards detonating (stopping
sweepers is the main use of this ability) you need to expect to take
hits. Use shields, and groups of five ships if possible, to avoid
unnecessary damage. And go fast enough to clear extra mines - might as
well if you are going to get hit anyway - though avoid the heavies.
warp 6 or 7 are decent sweeping speeds for such a stack. You can also
break down and go slow in all directions to prevent *too* much relaying.
But he is going to get a lot of re-laying done. Really moving back an
SD belt, while 20 or more of his minelayers in one area jump around
re-laying where you have swept, is not at all easy.
Another trick to prevent relaying is to give a ship fairly far back
orders to intercept a minelayer (provide you can see it - good SDs
"planet hop" to hide before a forward belt jump when possible), but set
the speed low enough that you don't go far into the fields. This will
cause him some losses from "forward belt mining" when he jumps out to
extend the fields. Though it will certainly cost you some losses too,
and lots of "goose chasing" when you are set to intercept someone who
doesn't jump out of his fields.
Also, expect him to intercept your sweepers. If you always use 5 ships
he'll always use 7-10 and he'll kill lots of them for little loss. The
single greatest asset when fighting an SD is to be *unpredictable*. If
your sweepers follow one method you are doomed if he knows what he is
doing. This, more than the mine placement issues, is what makes playing
(and fighting) an SD MM from hell. You need to constantly and
imaginatively vary your tactics, sweeping, intercepting, ambushing
interceptors of sweepers, etc. The skirmish war is just too important
to lose it by being predictable (when fighting SD that is).
You are not going to shut him down. He will lay mines; you will fight
in them. You will lose large numbers of sweeping ships and have many
fleets damaged. You must nevertheless make sure that he too takes
losses in the skirmish war, and that the minefields (his) move both ways
- when you have the upper hand locally (i.e. the bigger battle fleet to
support your sweepers and provide "escalation dominance") you *must*
push his mines back; when he does you can be sure they will creep
forward. Keep an eye on the *tide* not just the waves
Don't be predictable or you are a goner
I hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Jason Cawley
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Minefields
By: zoid on Fri, 06 June 2003 03:48 |
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Re: Minefields
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Re: Minefields
By: Paladin on Fri, 06 June 2003 07:05 |
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Re: Minefields
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Re: Minefields
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Re: Minefields
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Re: Minefields
By: Paladin on Sat, 07 June 2003 11:29 |
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Re: Minefields
By: LEit on Sat, 07 June 2003 13:53 |
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3% or 3.5%
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
By: LEit on Tue, 17 June 2003 21:10 |
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
By: ASword on Wed, 18 June 2003 01:58 |
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Chaff Sweeping
By: LEit on Tue, 09 September 2003 11:58 |
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
By: Robert on Tue, 09 September 2003 04:39 |
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
By: Robert on Tue, 09 September 2003 06:27 |
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
By: LEit on Tue, 09 September 2003 11:51 |
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Re: 3% or 3.5%
By: Robert on Wed, 10 September 2003 02:47 |
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Re: Minefields
By: zoid on Sat, 07 June 2003 23:56 |
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Re: Minefields
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Re: Minefields
By: Paladin on Tue, 17 June 2003 20:03 |
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