| Re: Chance to hit (Heavy) minefields much lower than documented? |
Wed, 15 August 2018 03:23   |
|
 antey007 |
 | Crewman 2nd Class |
Messages: 15
Registered: August 2015 | |
|
I suggest conducting a study using a method that I call an iterative semi-automatic testbed (ISAT).
For this we do the following:
Step 1. Preparation.
Create a small test bed (a small universe, 2 players, no random events). In it one of the players makes a minefield, the other gives the command to one fleet (1 chaff) to cross the minefield at high speed. In this case, a decrease in the size of the minefield will not affect the chance of hitting.
Save the order in the x-file, but do not generate.
Place this testbed in a folder, for example stars \ isat \ src
Step 2. Iterative generation.
You can write in your favorite programming language a small utility that will perform the specified actions the right number of times.
In windows, I use the Autotest.bat file for this:
del /q res\*
for /l %%i in (1,1,1000) do (
echo gen %%i of 1000
copy src\* . > nul
dir /b *.hst > list.txt
f:\games\stars\starsjrc4.exe -g1 -b list.txt
move *.m1 res\%%i.m1
)
As a result, we get a large number of m-files (1.m1, 2.m2, ..., 1000.m1) in the folder stars \ isat \ res.
Step 3. Analysis of the results.
Usually, this is the most difficult stage.
But in this problem, I think, you can do this:
The block size with the fleet (FLEETBLOCK) is different from the block size with salvage (OBJECTBLOCK). So just look at the size of the resulting files.
M-files, in which the fleet safely flew through the minefield, will have one size.
M-files, in which the ship is annihilated in a minefield, will have a different size. Сonsider the number of such files, their ratio to the total number of iterations will be the probability of an explosion in a minefield.
PS. This method can be used in a variety of other simple tasks. For example:
- an estimation of torpedo hit probability
- an estimation of hidden ship detection probability in a SD-race minefield
- an estimation of ship annihilation probability in case of overgating
and so on.
[Updated on: Wed, 15 August 2018 03:40] Report message to a moderator
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