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2nd planet 100%

Fri, 29 June 2007 06:12

Soobie

Officer Cadet 3rd Year

Messages: 270
Registered: May 2007
Location: Australia

Recently fooled around with PP and IT in tests. Setting up a 2WW, I didn't get a second 100% world from start (after lot of playing different 20 year test starts), but with 2i I did get 100% second world a few times - once when rad was the non-imm and couple of times with temp as the non-imm. Not at all with grav as the non-imm.

Can any one think of way of working out if there is much likelihood of the #2 world starting at 100% with a 2WW?

Cheers
S.

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Re: 2nd planet 100%

Fri, 29 June 2007 06:49

mazda

Lieutenant

Messages: 655
Registered: April 2003
Location: Reading, UK

Soobie wrote on Fri, 29 June 2007 11:12

Can any one think of way of working out if there is much likelihood of the #2 world starting at 100% with a 2WW?
S.

Assuming all 3 bands 20 (21) wide then you could argue that the odds of getting a 100% planet are (1/21) ^ 3, or 1 in 9261.
Don't know if 2nd planet hab allocation works like that though.
Methinks it is going to be rare however it works.

For 2i it would be a lot more likely, at least 1 in 21.
If you were getting statistically significant different results then that would be of interest.

M

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Re: 2nd planet 100%

Sat, 30 June 2007 04:05

craebild

Lieutenant

Messages: 568
Registered: December 2003
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark

It is not as simple as mazda writes, though the probability he gives is corrrect if the bands are as narrow as possible and do not overlap the extreme end 10 clicks in grav and/or temp.

First, the distribution of values for is only a straight linear distribution for rad, grav and temp have a trapezoid distribution.

Second, your second world is guaranteed to be green for you, so you have to take the hab settings of the race into account. Immunity in a hab field gives the best probability, without immunity the probability is with as narrow a field as possible.

Med venlig hilsen / Best regards / Mit freundlichen Grüßen
Christian Ræbild / Christian Raebild

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Re: 2nd planet 100%

Sat, 30 June 2007 11:40

iztok

Commander

Messages: 1206
Registered: April 2003
Location: Slovenia, Europe

Hi!

craebild wrote on Sat, 30 June 2007 10:05

It is not as simple as mazda writes

I agree. When doing a testbed for a 2-planets 1WW race (I even don't remember if it was an IT or PP) I got very often the second planet at 100%. Not 95%, not 80%, but pure 100%. IIRC that "very often" was somewhere around 1/3 cases. I didn't investigate further, but when Soobie mentioned that, it came back to my mind.

BR, Iztok

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Re: 2nd planet 100%

Tue, 03 July 2007 05:51

mazda

Lieutenant

Messages: 655
Registered: April 2003
Location: Reading, UK

Yes, there are vague suggestions in various bits of literature that the IT/PP secondary are not random.
One theory is that at first it tries to find you a green planet, and then if it can't (or doesn't - not the same thing) then it allocates you a perfect secondary.
This would suggest that the best chance of getting a 100% secondary is is a small sparse universe, whereas in a Huge Packed the chances would be quite small.

James McGuigan once posted a result that for 16 2WW ITs, in a small sparse, 7 of them got a perfect secondary (he also claimed 1 got a red secondary, but that was discredited).
That would tie in fairly well with Iztoks approximate 1 in 3 in his testbeds.

Must be fairly easy to check such a result.

Also surprised that something like this isn't already *known*.

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