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WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Mon, 23 January 2006 05:38

Kotk

Commander

Messages: 1227
Registered: May 2003

Ptolemy wrote on Mon, 23 January 2006 11:18

Just a note about the WH's:

Quote:

9. Wormhole endpoints jiggle
10. Wormhole endpoints degrade/jump

This is correct as is so wouldn't need to be changed since the jiggle and degradation/jumping are actually 2 different things entirely - i.e. jiggling being a slight movement in space and degradation being the state change (for instance; from 'volatile' to 'extremely volatile') with jumping being the major shift or even dissapearance of the wormhole.

It is probaly easier to visualize / understand if it is not combined into one event.

Ptolemy

So actually there are 3 different events?
Randomly jiggle around few ly,
Randomly degrade to more volatile,
Randomly jump to random location (probability of jump based on volatility) with improving into rock solid.

I have never experienced total disappearance of a WH from universe. What i have seen that if there are 3 pairs at turn 2400 then there will be 3 pairs at turn 5400. It occurs exactly at the same time with birth of new WH? Smile

[Mod edit: added quote after splitting off the thread from "Stars! Order of Events"]

[Updated on: Fri, 27 January 2006 05:10] by Moderator

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Re: Stars! Order of Events

Mon, 23 January 2006 08:51

Ptolemy

Commander

Messages: 1008
Registered: September 2003
Location: Finland

Quote:

Randomly jump to random location (probability of jump based on volatility) with improving into rock solid.

It's not a 'probability' based on volatility. Wormholes start as Rock Solid and steadily decay (I've never worked out the wormhole decay rate BUT, I've been in a game where my ally sent a ship through each turn since he said it seemed to him that the WH decayed faster if it was used more). Once the WH decays to 'extremely volatile', the next decay causes that end to completely shift to a new location. The other end may still only be only 'average' and still be where it was since the 2 ends are not usually in the same state of volatility.

Ptolemy

Though we often ask how and why, we must also do to get the answers to the questions.

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Re: Stars! Order of Events

Mon, 23 January 2006 09:42

Micha

Commander

Duel Club Champion 2005

Duel Club Champion 2004

Messages: 2342
Registered: November 2002
Location: Belgium GMT +1

Ptolemy wrote on Mon, 23 January 2006 14:51

The other end may still only be only 'average' and still be where it was since the 2 ends are not usually in the same state of volatility.

Which might explain why a set of WHs never vanishes (like Kotk mentioned)? The 2 sides would never disappear in the same turn, that chance would be very small ... and maybe even than they will both stay and not disappear completely?

mch

[Updated on: Mon, 23 January 2006 09:43]

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Re: Stars! Order of Events

Mon, 23 January 2006 10:47

vonKreedon

Lieutenant

Messages: 610
Registered: March 2003
Location: Seattle, WA USA

I don't think that WHs ever disappear, they just jump to an entirely new location. So both ends could theoreticaly jump in the same year and it would look like an entirely new set of WHs had been created; not that I've seen that.

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Re: Stars! Order of Events

Mon, 23 January 2006 11:13

mlaub

Lieutenant

Messages: 744
Registered: November 2003
Location: MN, USA

Ptolemy wrote on Mon, 23 January 2006 07:51

Quote:

Randomly jump to random location (probability of jump based on volatility) with improving into rock solid.

I don't think ship travel has any effect on WH. Just my personal observations. Here is an old post on the subject. AFAIK it is accurate on decay rates.

-Matt

Graham Scarborough wrote on Dec 26 1999

Whilst the rest of the family slept off the
Christmas Lunch I did a little 'Wormhole
Watching'

This was done in the J Patch RC2 in a Small
Universe where 3 wormhole 'pairs' were observed

The wormhole stability goes in the following scale :

Rock Solid
Stable
Mostly Stable
Average
Slightly Volatile
Volatile
Extremely Volatile

I observed each of the 6 holes through at least one
full 'cycle' each.

I judged a cycle to begin in the year that a wormhole
jumped a significant distance.

In every case (a total of 15 cycles), the year that
the jump occurred, the wormhole gained the status of
'Rock Solid'

In general terms the wormhole gradually decayed from
rock solid through to Extremely volatile, before
jumping to a new location and regaining the rock solid
status.

The most common cycle (8 out of 15) consisted of :

10 or 15 years at Rock Solid
5 years at Stable
5 years at Mostly Stable
5 years at Average
5 years at Slightly Volatile
5 years at Volatile
followed by "a number of" years at Extremely volatile
(anywhere between 1 and 68 years in the tests I did ! )

50% of the wormholes observed spent 10 years at Rock
Solid and 50% spent 15 years at Rock Solid.

The remaining 7 cycles aborted early somewhere between
Stable and Volatile i.e. the wormhole jumped and regained
Rock Solid status before the 'regulation' 5 years had
elapsed at one of the intermediate stabilities

I did not observe any wormhole with a Rock Solid status
making a jump.

Only a small test but some pretty strong patterns have
emerged.

Hope this helps

Graham

Global Warming - A climatic change eagerly awaited by most Minnesotans.

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Re: Stars! Order of Events

Mon, 23 January 2006 13:38

Kotk

Commander

Messages: 1227
Registered: May 2003

Ptolemy wrote on Mon, 23 January 2006 15:51

It's not a 'probability' based on volatility.
...
Once the WH decays to 'extremely volatile', the next decay causes that end to completely shift to a new location.

May be that jumping is not caused by 'probability' based on volatility but it sure does not always wait until 'extremely volatile'. I have had multiple times whem damn WH jumped away being juicy "Average" or only "Slightly Volatile" itself. Then it was "Rock Solid" again but whole wrong place. Sad

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Re: Stars! Order of Events

Mon, 23 January 2006 13:53

mlaub

Lieutenant

Messages: 744
Registered: November 2003
Location: MN, USA

Kotk wrote on Mon, 23 January 2006 12:38

Ptolemy wrote on Mon, 23 January 2006 15:51

It's not a 'probability' based on volatility.
...
Once the WH decays to 'extremely volatile', the next decay causes that end to completely shift to a new location.

Ok, here is another post describing percentage chance of a jump. Again, I have seen no behavior ingame to disput these findings in the later patches.

-Matt

Klempner Jan 8 2000

I have executed some further Wormhole test - this time
sending 200 fleets (SFX with Trans Star 10) through the
holes for a while:

Rock Hard _______: 0/280 = 0.00%
Stable __________: 1/109 = 0.92%
Mostly Stable ___: 2/101 = 1.98%
Average _________: 4/97 = 4.12%
Slightly Volatile: 5/71 = 5.04%
Volatile ________: 4/42 = 9.42%
Extremly Volatile: 6/160 = 3,75%

The numbers are rather similar to the numbers
without wormhole usage. I think we can assume no
important influence from this side.

I am now 99.99% sure that RockHard Wormholes will
NEVER jump (please tell me if anyone vitnesses
such an event).

I was expecting that the probability to jump would
increase with decreasing stability
Therefore I was very surprised by the staility of
extremely volatile wormholes. Since I have been
watching several thousand wormhole years i am pretty
sure not to be mislead by outlyers (dont know how to spell this word)

greetings
Peter

Global Warming - A climatic change eagerly awaited by most Minnesotans.

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Fri, 27 January 2006 05:14

Micha

Commander

Duel Club Champion 2005

Duel Club Champion 2004

Messages: 2342
Registered: November 2002
Location: Belgium GMT +1

I've split this off from the thread "Stars! Order of Events", it's interesting enough to deserve it's own! Wink

Some might earn it's place in the "Must Know" section ... though the idea of that section is not to place _everything_ about Stars! in it. There are other websites for that, and the newsgroup with it many intersting articles ...

mch,
modaw

[Updated on: Fri, 27 January 2006 05:16]

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Sun, 20 January 2008 03:25

gwellman

Petty Officer 1st Class

Messages: 66
Registered: January 2007
Location: Seattle, WA

Does anyone have data on how far the WH jiggles? I'm sure it's randomized, but is it a flat distribution up to a maximum distance, or is it a bell curve (aka normal distribution) ... and then there's the claim that wormholes are biased to jiggle away from the nearest stars... Again, any real numbers on this?

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Mon, 21 January 2008 04:20

m.a@stars

Commander

Messages: 2765
Registered: October 2004
Location: Third star to the left

gwellman wrote on Sun, 20 January 2008 09:25

I seem to remember at least one instance where I sent a ship from a planet to a slightly unreachable WH just in case it jiggled within range, and I got lucky and the WH jiggled towards my planet and my ship was able to jump thru. Very Happy

I'd bet the jiggling is a flat distribution up to about 20lys, but I'm not 100% sure. Sherlock

So many Stars, so few Missiles!

In space no one can hear you scheme! Deal

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Tue, 22 January 2008 07:57

Micha

Commander

Duel Club Champion 2005

Duel Club Champion 2004

Messages: 2342
Registered: November 2002
Location: Belgium GMT +1

m.a@stars wrote on Mon, 21 January 2008 10:20

Didn't happen. Wink

Stars! Order of Events:

...
6. Fleets move (run out of fuel, hit minefields (fields reduce as they are hit, lowest # fleets hits mines first),
stargate, wormhole travel)
...
9. Wormhole endpoints jiggle/degrade/jump
...

mch

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Tue, 22 January 2008 16:45

bigcanuknaz

Officer Cadet 1st Year

Messages: 205
Registered: July 2004

I am one of those people who regularly send 2 scouts opposite ways through wormholes every time.

My observations:

1.

Quote:

Didn't happen. Wink

right. I always used to move my scout a bit faster, just in case the wormhole jiggled out of range. I found this was unnecessary, because movement happens before jiggle.

2. Jiggle distance seems reasonably random to me. I am sure I have seen as little as 2 ly jiggle, and I am sure I have never seen more than a 16 ly jiggle(warp 4 range). The range could be as low as 1 ly on the low end, and might be something slightly less than or equal to 16 at the high end.

naz

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Thu, 24 January 2008 06:47

wizard

Officer Cadet 3rd Year

Messages: 279
Registered: January 2004
Location: Aachen, Germany

bigcanuknaz wrote on Tue, 22 January 2008 22:45

I am one of those people who regularly send 2 scouts opposite ways through wormholes every time.

If you want (or can) only observe one end of the WH, you can send the scout to the endpoint and choose "Space" instead of the wormhole instead. Ships coming from the other end will arrive exactly there.

Andreas / wizard

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Re: WH behaviour (split from "Stars! Order of Events")

Sun, 13 March 2011 16:29

gible

Commander

Messages: 1343
Registered: November 2002
Location: Wellington, New Zealand

Just adding info to his thread....

From this thread on r.g.c.s:

Klempner wrote Jan 3 2000, 9:00 pm

"Graham Scarborough" wrote:
> Whilst the rest of the family slept off the
> Christmas Lunch I did a little 'Wormhole
> Watching'

I can absolutely confirm Grahams test and have some
additionl figures (using J-RC2, german version)
I used a small to medium testbeds with one to four
pairs of wormholes
the number of wormholes never changed in a game
each wormhole has its "Rock-Hard-Period" that never
changed during the tests
the "Rock-Hard-Period" (the initial period after a
jump described by Graham) has been 5, 10 and 15 years
I never observed a Jump during a "Rock-Hard-Period"
and here come some data from Worm Hole Watching:

Rock Solid          0 Jumps /  950 years = 0.00% 
Stable              2 Jumps /  336 years = 0.60% 
Mostly Stable       6 Jumps /  317 years = 1.89% 
Average            10 Jumps /  269 years = 3.72% 
Slightly Volatile   7 Jumps /  231 years = 3.03% 
Volatile           12 Jumps /  193 years = 6.21% 
Extremely Volatile 32 Jumps /  865 years = 3.70%

It is interesting to see that "Volatile" Wormholes
are more likely to jump than "Extremely Volatiles"
the record for Extremely Volatile Wormholes was
a jump after 104 Extremely Volatile years
hope that this was
interesting for someone
Peter

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