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Overpop Wed, 03 December 2003 14:01 Go to next message
LEit is currently offline LEit

 
Lt. Commander

Messages: 879
Registered: April 2003
Location: CT
A late game IS can easily over-pop their worlds for a boost in production. Well maybe not easily... but it is possible.

Some basics: Pop over 100% dies due to overcrowding at 4% per 100% of excess pop, so a world with 300% pop will have losses of 8% (of the total pop, not just the excess). Pop over 100% gives extra production at half efficiency, so a 1/1000 race with 2000000 pop on a 100% world (without OBRM) will get 1500 resources from pop, 1000 for the first million, and 500 for the second million.

Over-pop therefore requires you to grow enough in orbit to replace the losses. Note that freighter growth and overflow happens before production, and that deaths due to overcrowding happens after production. So you should have pop in orbit that will top off a world to your goal.

Full 3x over-pop requires a lot of pop to do this, for a 100% world you will want 3.3 mil on the ground (OBRM is assumed for all races). 3.3mil will lose 8% or 264k pop a year, for a 20% IS, that will require 2.64 million pop in orbit. Note that you don't need the full 3.3 on the ground, you only need enough so that the 264k will total 3.3 million, which is 3.036 million. Total ground and freighter pop required is 5.676 million.

(Note that losses are slightly higher due to rounding, I've found that I need 2.654 million pop in orbit, and 3.0346 on the ground)

2x over-pop for 100% world you will want 2.2 mil on the ground. 2.2mil will lose 4% or 88k pop a year, for a 20% IS, that will require 880k pop in orbit. Total ground and freighter pop required is 2.992 million.

Only going to 2x gives you a 50% bonus to production, but uses a half the pop. Therefore I recommend going to 2x when you have enough pop to get to 3x soon, but arn't there yet. A good point to do this is when you have enough for 3.5 million for each 100% world (and a corresponding amount for smaller worlds). You will use 3 million for the 2x, and .5 would grow to 2.7 in 16 years. If you kept 2.5 million in orbit and went for 3x ASAP that will take 7 years. How
...




- LEit

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 11:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
LEit is currently offline LEit

 
Lt. Commander

Messages: 879
Registered: April 2003
Location: CT
The relevant order of events for IS growth is:

Ships move
Pop in space grows (overflowing to surface)
Production
Pop on ground grows/dies to overcrowding/dies to red worlds.

So, you only need 300% pop after the overflow.

In other words, calculate how many will die at 300%, then set the world to 300%, lift the amount that will die, and set the overflow to drop that amount. At the end of every turn it will show your pop, resources, etc as lower then what you really have. But you will be producing with full values. If you want the game to calculate how long something will take to build, drop some extra pop, look, and then lift it again. You'll have to drop tons of pop anyway to account for the losses.

Note that arriving ships can overflow, and add to current production. And it is possible for IS pop to grow twice in a turn, once in space, and then the overflow on the ground gets another chance to grow. In practice this is rare and minor.



- LEit

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 12:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mlaub is currently offline mlaub

 
Lieutenant

Messages: 744
Registered: November 2003
Location: MN, USA
LEit wrote on Wed, 07 April 2004 10:35


In other words, calculate how many will die at 300%, then set the world to 300%, lift the amount that will die, and set the overflow to drop that amount.


Huh? what do you mean by "set the overflow to drop that amount"? Please go look at my previous response, and explain from that point. Thanks.

If you are saying what I think you are saying, maybe you will code Freestars to make this possible through waypoint orders of stationary ships...

In the game I play, though, this just isn't realistic. No way you are going to do this turn after turn with out alot of MM in a huge universe. A formula would be much easier... Do it once, put the pop in orbit, no more thinking turn after turn. Eventually the pop equalizes to the level you wanted.

-Matt



Global Warming - A climatic change eagerly awaited by most Minnesotans.

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 12:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
LEit is currently offline LEit

 
Lt. Commander

Messages: 879
Registered: April 2003
Location: CT
'Set the overflow to drop that amount'

This means, if you have a 20% pgr and want to overflow 100(00) pop, you put 1000 on the fleet and fill the rest with boranium.

There is no MM after the setup. Although the death rates are not exact, they vary by a hundred or so from turn to turn. So after a few turns you will probably need to make minor adjustments, if you have a bit over what you need, you'll be fine (but waste some - although as an IS, some waste is acceptable).



- LEit

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 12:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
LEit is currently offline LEit

 
Lt. Commander

Messages: 879
Registered: April 2003
Location: CT
Using your example: if you want to hold a world at 3mil pop on the ground with 20% growth:

3mil pop will have 240k deaths (it is based on the 300% not just the 200% over).

So, put 2.4m in orbit with no room for expansion so that you will overflow 240k each turn.
Then put 2.76mil on the ground.

You will overflow 240k bringing you to 3mil on the ground.
They will build stuff.
They will die back to 2.76mil.

So you need 5.16 mil (my previous figures are for OBRM races, so an OBRM would need 5.576mil total - just what I'd listed).



- LEit

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 12:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
LEit is currently offline LEit

 
Lt. Commander

Messages: 879
Registered: April 2003
Location: CT
And a formula:

pop = 100% pop on the world
growth = growth rate (.2 for 20%)

total needed = pop*3 - pop*3*.08 + pop*3*.08/(growth/2)

Of that, pop*3 - pop*3*.08 goes on the ground, and pop*3*.08/(growth/2) goes in orbit in a full fleet.

For your example:
1m*3 - 1m*3*.08 + 1m*3*.08/(.2/2)
3m - 240k on the ground, 240k/.1 (2.4m) in orbit.



- LEit

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 12:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kotk

 
Commander

Messages: 1227
Registered: May 2003
LEit wrote on Wed, 07 April 2004 17:35

Note that arriving ships can overflow, and add to current production. And it is possible for IS pop to grow twice in a turn, once in space, and then the overflow on the ground gets another chance to grow. In practice this is rare and minor.


Quite minor but still visible....

For example:
You have 475,000 pop at planet and orbiting freighters.
You want to hold it at level of 275,000.
Your IS growth is 18%.

People may do it usual way:
Take 2000kt into freighters where is room to grow and leave 2750kT on ground. Freighters grow into 2180, ground into 3245kT.

But you, you turn terribly clever and do it smart way:
You take 2198kT into 2 large freighters and leave 2552kT on ground, filling the rest of large freighters with minerals.
The freighters overflow 198kT to addition of 2552kT -> 2750kT
After that they grow on ground into 3245kT

What you gained in the process was that your pop growth in freighter was 9.9% instead of 9%. Wink Not that i encourage MM like described.

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 13:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mlaub is currently offline mlaub

 
Lieutenant

Messages: 744
Registered: November 2003
Location: MN, USA
LEit wrote on Wed, 07 April 2004 11:41


(it is based on the 300% not just the 200% over).


Are you sure about this? I was tired when i tested this, but I'm sure it is just the excess pop involved in the calc. Otherwise, a 101% of cap world would have 4.04% die off...

Quote:


So, put 2.4m in orbit with no room for expansion so that you will overflow 240k each turn.
Then put 2.76mil on the ground.

You will overflow 240k bringing you to 3mil on the ground.
They will build stuff.
They will die back to 2.76mil.



Idea Doh!

Heh, now I know why I wasn't a math major...

Thanks!
-Matt





Global Warming - A climatic change eagerly awaited by most Minnesotans.

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 14:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kotk

 
Commander

Messages: 1227
Registered: May 2003
mlaub wrote on Wed, 07 April 2004 19:22


Are you sure about this? I was tired when i tested this, but I'm sure it is just the excess pop involved in the calc. Otherwise, a 101% of cap world would have 4.04% die off...


Yes i can confirm it ... like i posted in academy growth thread its something like:

(currpop)*-4%*MIN((currpop-planetmax)/planetmax,3)

so for 101% pop it is

-4% * MIN( 1%/100%,3) = -0.04%

and for 400% pop it is

-4% * MIN(300%/100%,3) = -12%

at 300% it is -8% from similar calculation and so if its 3m then 240k will die.

[added 300% calculation]


[Updated on: Wed, 07 April 2004 14:19]

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Re: Overpop Wed, 07 April 2004 15:02 Go to previous message
mlaub is currently offline mlaub

 
Lieutenant

Messages: 744
Registered: November 2003
Location: MN, USA
Kotk wrote on Wed, 07 April 2004 13:08

mlaub wrote on Wed, 07 April 2004 19:22


Are you sure about this? I was tired when i tested this, but I'm sure it is just the excess pop involved in the calc. Otherwise, a 101% of cap world would have 4.04% die off...


Yes i can confirm it ... like i posted in academy growth thread its something like:



LOL. Your example proves *my* math right.... Thanks!

-Matt



Global Warming - A climatic change eagerly awaited by most Minnesotans.

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