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Universe habs, what governs them? Mon, 03 September 2012 09:42 Go to next message
sprocket is currently offline sprocket

 
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After having played in many games both online and solitaire, I have consistently encountered that when your habs are set to a ratio that is what you will never see, also online games seem more skewed than solitaire games.

As an example I in Reanimation last year with habs that were 1/7 but it turned out to be closer to 1/25.

Currently I am finding a similarly disproportionately poor planet draw in my current game (my habs are very wide so I wont die) but still I am maybe half of what I should based on the ratio the race wizard indicates.

So I guess the question is: whats the malfunction? Is there a formula for getting the habs set so you get the right proportion of planets?



Dieter of sprockets

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Mon, 03 September 2012 13:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nmid

 
Commander

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The malfunction seems to be that the planets u want are on the other side of the universe or are in the hands of your enemies, or worse...your allies.

However, if you factor in all the planets, irrespective of the distance from your hw or who holds them, you will find that they do match up.




I know my minefields.. but I'm a chaff sweeper.
I used to curse when I got stuck in traffic... till I realised I AM traffic.

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Mon, 03 September 2012 13:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mark Hewitt is currently offline Mark Hewitt

 
Master Chief Petty Officer

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Location: Calgary, Alberta, Canada
I hope it's just the possible skew of a small sample. As this (like virtually everything else in Stars! has been researched.

I quote from the Stars! Compendium v0.5 (got it off of www.itp.uni-hannover.de/~krohn long ago) quoting Jason Cawley (rec.games.computer.stars 1999, Apr 29) and Bill Butler (rec.games.computer.stars, 1999 May 01) below in the spoiler tag. (And I've used the knowledge to computer actual probability, e.g. instead of using just "1 in 4" I know a particular race has 0.191 probability of find initial green planets. I now compute this for every race I look at as it's not too hard.)

Toggle Spoiler
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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Mon, 03 September 2012 14:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Altruist is currently offline Altruist

 
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Some additional info and graphs you can find here:
* Charts of habitability spread and mineral concentrations, by Alan L. Kolaga.
Note the different spread of temp and grav on the one hand and for rad on the other.

1 in 4 in the race wizard is often enough a very rough estimation. Especially since it doesn't say anything about the quality of the planets. A helpful calculator to get a better overview:
* Overall Planet Habitability and Race Econ Calculator, original Author: Henk Poell, additions by: Tiib, M.A, C.R et al.
You can see quite well some of the effects for:
* wide hab: many planets but most of low quality
* 1 imm, 2 narrow: low number of initial planets but most of them quite good while lots of possible good planets still need terraforming from yellow to green (which needs time you might have or not depending on the game sttings).

As often as I sit in despair in front of the Stars-map and wondering where my green planets are supposed to be, in general I'd say that it often enough works out surprisingly well balanced. Especially when taking into account the low number of stars for example in a small/normal galaxy: just 128.

But chance is surely also playing an important role. It does make a difference wether 2 of your 4 estimated 70+%-planets are within 162-ly or all 4 are on the other side of the galaxy.

It's one of the things you need to adapt to: If your nearby draw of habitable planets is poor, a focus on scouting and early aggressive expansion is needed and often enough... after the game... one might even think that it helped to win the game to feel forced to be aggressively expanding from very early on.


[Updated on: Mon, 03 September 2012 14:57]

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Mon, 03 September 2012 21:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Coyote is currently offline Coyote

 
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I feel it's confirmation bias.
When you get fewer good planets, you think "The RNG has screwed me again!"
When you get more good planets, you think "My race design is awesome!"

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Mon, 03 September 2012 22:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
sprocket is currently offline sprocket

 
Chief Warrant Officer 1

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Okay, this is good to know.
So I have to go across galaxy, meet new people, kill them, and take their stuff.
I can do this.



Dieter of sprockets

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Tue, 04 September 2012 02:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mark Hewitt is currently offline Mark Hewitt

 
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Altruist, Coyote, and Sprocket have the right spirit. >:)

Altruist wrote on Mon, 03 September 2012 12:44
Some additional info and graphs you can find here:
* Charts of habitability spread and mineral concentrations, by Alan L. Kolaga.
Note the different spread of temp and grav on the one hand and for rad on the other.

1 in 4 in the race wizard is often enough a very rough estimation. Especially since it doesn't say anything about the quality of the planets. A helpful calculator to get a better overview:
* Overall Planet Habitability and Race Econ Calculator, original Author: Henk Poell, additions by: Tiib, M.A, C.R et al.


I've used the information in the first post (which is identical to the references I quoted above) to figure out how to calculate hab %. Unfortunately it looks like Poell et al's habcalc gets a slightly higher figure, and I'm fairly sure my method is correct.

hab % = <grav weighted width> x <temp weighted width> x <rad weighted width> / 801900

where 801900 is the full weighted width of each range multiplied together: 90 x 90 x 99 = 801900.

Weighted range is <high value> - <low value> + 1 - <end adjustments> where the values are as they are on rad scale or the numbers shown on the hab caculator. Here's those numbers from a race design I wrote out recently:

Grav immune [ 0--100: 90 wide]
Temp -160 - 160 [10-50-90: 81 wide]
Rad 77 - 99 [77-88-99: 23 wide]
(1 in 5, calc 0.209)


The end adjustments are values to subtract from the raw width to get the proper weighting if the end rad values are 0 or 100 (easy) or the end grav/temp numbers are 0-9 or 91-100 (not so easy). If your range is wide enough to be in both ends, correct for both ends.

Rad

0 100 -1

Grav & Temp

0 100 -5.5
1 99 -4.5
2 98 -3.6
3 97 -2.8
4 96 -2.1
5 95 -1.5
6 94 -1.0
7 93 -0.6
8 92 -0.3
9 91 -0.1


Immunity gives ranges the full width, for rad 99 and for grav/temp 90.


[Updated on: Tue, 04 September 2012 02:16]

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Tue, 04 September 2012 11:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Altruist is currently offline Altruist

 
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Mark Hewitt wrote on Tue, 04 September 2012 08:13
[...]
I've used the information in the first post (which is identical to the references I quoted above) to figure out how to calculate hab %.


I guessed so.
But I thought links to the graphs and calculators might be nevertheless interesting for other curious readers.

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Tue, 04 September 2012 14:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
m.a@stars is currently offline m.a@stars

 
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Mark Hewitt wrote on Tue, 04 September 2012 08:13
I've used the information in the first post (which is identical to the references I quoted above) to figure out how to calculate hab %. Unfortunately it looks like Poell et al's habcalc gets a slightly higher figure, and I'm fairly sure my method is correct.

Interesting! Sherlock

That Calculator uses a "best approximation" math that's about 1% off in many cases.

How does you math compare with the actual habs as displayed by Stars! itself? Work at computer

Or did you mean the "hab ratio" as displayed by the RaceWizard? Confused


[Updated on: Tue, 04 September 2012 14:47]




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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Tue, 04 September 2012 19:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Marduk is currently offline Marduk

 
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I usually get roughly the estimated proportion of systems, but I have had some games where it is wildly skewed one way or the other. The smaller and sparser the universe and the narrower your hab settings, the greater the likelihood this will occur. There are roughly a million system hab variations... if you are only seeing a couple of hundred systems there are a lot of potential gaps.

Especially if you have two fields at minimum width (I don't remember your hab settings, but I've done it often enough), it doesn't take much unevenness in the distribution to have a huge impact on the final tally of habitable and good systems. I got tired of that, so I mostly go with an immunity and one wide, one narrow. That almost guarantees being close to the estimated hab. As noted, you may still have to conquer a lot of territory to find those good systems...



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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Wed, 05 September 2012 01:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mark Hewitt is currently offline Mark Hewitt

 
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m.a@stars wrote on Tue, 04 September 2012 12:44
Mark Hewitt wrote on Tue, 04 September 2012 08:13
I've used the information in the first post (which is identical to the references I quoted above) to figure out how to calculate hab %. Unfortunately it looks like Poell et al's habcalc gets a slightly higher figure, and I'm fairly sure my method is correct.

Interesting! Sherlock

That Calculator uses a "best approximation" math that's about 1% off in many cases.

How does you math compare with the actual habs as displayed by Stars! itself? Work at computer

Or did you mean the "hab ratio" as displayed by the RaceWizard? Confused


I'm also finding the habcalc is give percentage chance of a random world being green as 1% higher than I calculate it.

I use my formula (stated above) to calculate the chance of a random world being green as a decimal fraction, e.g. 0.213. To convert to and from percentage chance, multiply or divide by 100. To get the race wizard "1 in x" x value, take the reciprocal of the decimal fraction chance and round it to a whole number.

My decimal fractions tend to agree with the race wizard "1 in x" chance, with my values allowing small changes in chance to be seen.


Marduk wrote on Tue, 04 September 2012 17:25
I usually get roughly the estimated proportion of systems, but I have had some games where it is wildly skewed one way or the other. The smaller and sparser the universe and the narrower your hab settings, the greater the likelihood this will occur. There are roughly a million system hab variations... if you are only seeing a couple of hundred systems there are a lot of potential gaps.

Especially if you have two fields at minimum width (I don't remember your hab settings, but I've done it often enough), it doesn't take much unevenness in the distribution to have a huge impact on the final tally of habitable and good systems. I got tired of that, so I mostly go with an immunity and one wide, one narrow. That almost guarantees being close to the estimated hab. As noted, you may still have to conquer a lot of territory to find those good systems...


Yes, sometimes there isn't enough stars in a universe (or close to your homeworld, d### it all! >:) to have all the habs match the true distribution that you find when you have enough, certainly for 10,000+.

As the Stars! random number generator can be seeded (with a value in the universe .def file, allow you to recreate the same universe over and over again), it must be a pseudo random number generator. It could still be very close to true random. If you could extract the initial random numbers output (usually a real number x where 0 =< x < 1) you could do the pi/4 test. To test how random the numbers are, take N pairs x and y of random numbers and calculate:

sum for every pair ( if x^2 + y^2 =< 1 then 1 else 0 ) / N

which is pi/4 for a true random number generator when N is big enough.

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Wed, 05 September 2012 06:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
m.a@stars is currently offline m.a@stars

 
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Mark Hewitt wrote on Wed, 05 September 2012 07:36
I'm also finding the habcalc is give percentage chance of a random world being green as 1% higher than I calculate it.

I use my formula (stated above) to calculate the chance of a random world being green as a decimal fraction, e.g. 0.213. To convert to and from percentage chance, multiply or divide by 100. To get the race wizard "1 in x" x value, take the reciprocal of the decimal fraction chance and round it to a whole number.

My decimal fractions tend to agree with the race wizard "1 in x" chance, with my values allowing small changes in chance to be seen.

The HabCalc isn't trying to replicate the Race wizard, but to give a more accurate preview of what habs will be found in a real game. Sherlock

If we actually managed to reach such accuracy is a different matter: Rolling Eyes



So many Stars, so few Missiles!

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Re: Universe habs, what governs them? Thu, 13 September 2012 12:26 Go to previous message
iztok is currently offline iztok

 
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Messages: 1197
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Hi!
Quote:
online games seem more skewed than solitaire games.

If that makes you feel better, you're not alone in this Raining

In ALL my time with Stars! I can't remember a single on-line game where I had better planet draw, than my race was designed with. In games, where hab draw mattered (non-1WW or non-immune), it was always a "point" or two worse than I expected, up to the most extreme last game, where my race was dual-immune AR with 1-in-3 hab, but got 1-in-8 within 2 W-9 jumps.

Feel better now? I certainly do. Wink

BR, Iztok

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