| Re: All MT information in one place (almost) |
Fri, 14 January 2011 14:19   |
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 m.a@stars |
 | Commander |
Messages: 2765
Registered: October 2004
Location: Third star to the left | |
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| craebild wrote on Fri, 14 January 2011 19:57 |
2. The probability for gaining a tech level through normal tech scrapping seems pretty well established, and gives a probability of 90% for successfully gaining a tech level if there are 8 tech scrappers in separate fleets. However, my experience from actual games and race testbeds shows a lower than 10% incidence of failure, so is that established figure wrong, or have I been consistently lucky ?
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That's statistics for you.  Even just 6 scrappers give a decent enough chance of getting a tech that most players don't realize the odds are just about 80% for their luck holding, and when luck fails they don't quite grasp why. 
I have seen 8 scrappers fail twice across a half hundred games, enough to really think about it, but not really enough to justify always using 9 scrappers. 
I've also at least once gained 3 techlevels in a row by scrapping just 2 scrappers per turn of a set of 8. That would be 3 lucky dice throws, one unlucky, and also within statistical odds. 
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