Home World Forum: PP » PP permaforming

Home » Primary Racial Traits » PP » PP permaforming - something is wrong?

Show: Today's Messages :: Show Polls :: Message Navigator
E-mail to friend

Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong?

Tue, 28 February 2006 13:22

Tomasoid

Chief Warrant Officer 3

Messages: 182
Registered: December 2005
Location: Ukraine

mazda wrote on Tue, 28 February 2006 18:30

To take your example.
You have more chance of getting 10 terraformings with the former but also more chance of getting ZERO terraformings.
Both 10x150 and 1x1500 have the same average of 7.5 terraformings (do you believe me Razz

)

You only really need one example to show yourself this.
Compare 1x100 packet with 2x50 packets.
100kT packet = 50% chance of 0 terra and 50% chance of 1 terra.
2x50kT packets = 9/16 chance of 0 terra (more than 50%), 6/16 chance of 1 terra (less than 50%) and 1/16 chance of 2 terra (certainly more than 0%).
Average for both distributions is 0.5 terraformings.

Small correction: chances of 50kT teraforming 1% are 1/8, not 1/16.

I knew you would say above. Wink

Yes, as far as I remember from statistics, when you have trials of series of trials, they just sum up into a one long single serie of trials for particular distribution parts. So it is the same as 20 trials with 10x100kT and 10x50kT.

However, what we are comparing is "what are chances to get 10% or more" for 2 different series: 15x100kT and 10x100kT + 10x50kT. These are, indeed, completely different because distribution is different.

Calculation of distribution for larger packets is rather troublesome because lots of combinations, so I'll just do tests and see.

For smaller packets (skip if you do not like math)...
Sherlock

Let me show it to you on a simpler example.
Let's take 300kT vs 2 150kT.

300kT:
Distribution of chances is following:
0%: 0.125
1%: 0.375
2%: 0.375
3%: 0.125

Average:
3*0.125 + 2*0.375 + 1*0.375 = 1.5

For a 150kT packet, distribution of chances is following:
0%: 0.375
1%: 0.5
2%: 0.125

However, for a 2 trials of each 150kT packet, distribution of chances is following:
0%: only one case when both 150kT do 0%: 0.375*0.375
= 0.140625
1%: 2 cases when either does 1%: 0.5*0.375*2
=0.375
2%: 3 cases: both do 1%, or either does 2%: 0.5*0.5 + 0.375*0.125*2
=0.34375
3%: in 2 cases: one does 1% and another 2% and vise versa: 0.5*0.1 ...

[ Show the rest of the message ]

WBR, Vlad

Report message to a moderator

[Message index]

		PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Mon, 20 February 2006 10:30
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Dogthinkers on Mon, 20 February 2006 18:07
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Mon, 20 February 2006 19:19
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 21 February 2006 01:16
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 21 February 2006 06:11
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 21 February 2006 08:36
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 21 February 2006 08:52
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 21 February 2006 09:05
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 21 February 2006 13:43
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 22 February 2006 05:46
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Mon, 27 February 2006 08:40
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Mon, 27 February 2006 13:11
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 28 February 2006 03:32
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 28 February 2006 09:57
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 28 February 2006 10:50
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 28 February 2006 11:30
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 28 February 2006 13:22
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 28 February 2006 18:20
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Tue, 28 February 2006 21:32
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 01:51
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 02:05
		correction to spreadsheet By: mazda on Wed, 01 March 2006 08:16
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 09:02
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: quatch on Wed, 01 March 2006 10:31
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 10:46
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Mon, 06 March 2006 04:33
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Kotk on Mon, 06 March 2006 05:56
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Mon, 06 March 2006 06:19
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Kotk on Mon, 06 March 2006 12:55
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Mon, 06 March 2006 13:10
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Kotk on Mon, 06 March 2006 15:31
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Tue, 07 March 2006 03:02
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Tue, 07 March 2006 13:42
		Habitable planet results By: Tomasoid on Sun, 12 March 2006 10:54
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Tue, 21 February 2006 13:48
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 22 February 2006 05:44
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: iztok on Wed, 22 February 2006 01:43

Previous Topic:	PP Packet terraforming
Next Topic:	PP packet teraforming - chances calculator

Goto Forum:

-=] Back to Top [=-

Current Time: Sun Jun 09 01:33:22 EDT 2024