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Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong?

Tue, 28 February 2006 11:30

mazda

Lieutenant

Messages: 655
Registered: April 2003
Location: Reading, UK

Tomasoid wrote on Tue, 28 February 2006 15:50

There is no difference from chances point of view - I agree. However, when you try to split packet and see what happens from different points of view, such as chances distibution throughout the scale with the total teraforming % done, you will see quite interesting pictures to compare between one and multiple packets with the same total amount of minerals Wink

It looks like sending 10 150kT packets or so is better than sending one 1500kT packet for maximums and distribution reason. 10x150kT packets may do max 20 teraformings, while one 1500kT - only 15. One 1500kT packet have small chances (less than 0.5) to get 10 or more teraformings, while 10x150kT have much better chances to get the same 10 (more than 0.5) Cool

This is because each 150kT packet have 0.625 chances to do at least 1%. I may be wrong - will se in tests.

Yes. There are some "interesting" statistical effects.
But if you intend to do a lot of terraforming then you will get the same net result overall. It will all average out to that 50% per 100kT ratio.

Yes. Splitting into smaller packets increases the chances of getting more terra (at the expense that there is more chance of getting less terra as well, see below). However it won't change the average.

To take your example.
You have more chance of getting 10 terraformings with the former but also more chance of getting ZERO terraformings.
Both 10x150 and 1x1500 have the same average of 7.5 terraformings (do you believe me Razz

)

You only really need one example to show yourself this.
Compare 1x100 packet with 2x50 packets.
100kT packet = 50% chance of 0 terra and 50% chance of 1 terra.
2x50kT packets = 9/16 chance of 0 terra (more than 50%), 6/16 chance of 1 terra (less than 50%) and 1/16 chance of 2 terra (certainly more than 0%).
Average for both distributions is 0.5 terraformings.

You have more chance of getting the fringe values, and hence less chance of getting a "middle" value, but the average never changes.

T ...

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[Message index]

		PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Mon, 20 February 2006 10:30
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Dogthinkers on Mon, 20 February 2006 18:07
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Mon, 20 February 2006 19:19
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 21 February 2006 01:16
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 21 February 2006 06:11
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 21 February 2006 08:36
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 21 February 2006 08:52
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 21 February 2006 09:05
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 21 February 2006 13:43
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 22 February 2006 05:46
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Mon, 27 February 2006 08:40
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Mon, 27 February 2006 13:11
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 28 February 2006 03:32
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 28 February 2006 09:57
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 28 February 2006 10:50
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 28 February 2006 11:30
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Tue, 28 February 2006 13:22
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: mazda on Tue, 28 February 2006 18:20
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Tue, 28 February 2006 21:32
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 01:51
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 02:05
		correction to spreadsheet By: mazda on Wed, 01 March 2006 08:16
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 09:02
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: quatch on Wed, 01 March 2006 10:31
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Wed, 01 March 2006 10:46
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Mon, 06 March 2006 04:33
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Kotk on Mon, 06 March 2006 05:56
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Mon, 06 March 2006 06:19
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Kotk on Mon, 06 March 2006 12:55
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Mon, 06 March 2006 13:10
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Kotk on Mon, 06 March 2006 15:31
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Tue, 07 March 2006 03:02
		Re: correction to spreadsheet By: Tomasoid on Tue, 07 March 2006 13:42
		Habitable planet results By: Tomasoid on Sun, 12 March 2006 10:54
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Kotk on Tue, 21 February 2006 13:48
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: Tomasoid on Wed, 22 February 2006 05:44
		Re: PP permaforming - something is wrong? By: iztok on Wed, 22 February 2006 01:43

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