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Big Pop Drops Sat, 28 June 2003 21:56 Go to next message
zoid is currently offline zoid

 
Ensign

Messages: 348
Registered: December 2002
Location: Murray, KY - USA
Once upon a time in discussion of a new game, we were discussing the issue of an IS race relying completely on pop-drops, without any bombers whatsoever. My position (perhaps incorrectly) was that the IS needed some kind of bombers, which brought boos and jeers from all my friends here who disputed the fact (perhaps correctly - I'm not sure). Okay, actually there were no boos or jeers; the respondents were quite polite. Smile

Freakyboy said IIRC that the IS race in question could drop 8,000,000 colonists on a 100% capped planet with full defenses and survive the defenses and the battle with 1,000,000 colonists (roughly) surviving. He gave lots of numbers that impressed me, and nobody disputed what he said, so I assumed that once again, I was wrong. He pointed out that an IS race with 18% growth could quickly amass such an invasion fleet, and extrapolated that with more than one of these fleets the IS could maintain reasonable momentum in planet captures even with no bombers.

Now I am playing an IS and intended to use that technique, but it doesn't seem to be working as expected. Two cases in point:

Planet #1 was is an IT HW that was near 100% capacity and with maximum defenses resulting in a scanner report of about 93% coverage. After several years of bombing by my ally, the planet was reduced to less than 300,000 and the defenses were in the lower 60% range. I moved in with 4.5 million colonists and dropped on the planet. I conquered the planet....with 100 colonists surviving. (ouch) There weren't even any factories or mines remaining. Crying or Very Sad

Planet #2 was an SS planet that had somewhere between 580,000 and 850,000 (I can't remember) population, but it had no defenses. I felt pretty safe dropping only 1.8 million on this planet since the player had quit long ago. I conquered the planet...with 539,000 colonists surviving.

I'm not sure what is happening here, but it appears possible that anything over 1,000,000 dropped on the planet may just be forfeit instantly without having any effect on the battle. Both cases seem more like the expected result of dropping only 1 million colonists. It does appear in fact, that unless the IS is content to drop 1 million colonists at a time with repeated failed attempts to whittle down the population on a 100% capped and defended world, that he DOES need bombers. Does anyone have more information on pop-drops of such a large scale? It's tough losing all but a single point of population out of 45000+ on what would seem an easy victory. My IT enemy is probably happy as hell that I dropped 4.5 million colonists on his HW since I lost 4.49999999 million colonists in the deal - I would be.



I'M NOT AN EXPERT AND I'M OFTEN PROVEN WRONG. TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN YOU READ MY POSTS.
Math? Confused Ummm, sure! Nod I do FREESTYLE math.

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Re: Big Pop Drops Sat, 28 June 2003 23:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Steve is currently offline Steve

 
Officer Cadet 1st Year

Messages: 217
Registered: November 2002
Location: 40 deg N, 90 deg W
I played once as an IS without building any bombers. I tried to drop with roughly 4X the defenders population. That was enough to take the planet with a few of my colonists remaining.

I did not have a big problem amassing the required population. My breeder fleets were easily generating a million or so colonists per year.



No trees were harmed in the making of this sig. However, many electrons were terribly inconvenienced

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Re: Big Pop Drops Sat, 28 June 2003 23:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Crusader is currently offline Crusader

 
Officer Cadet 2nd Year

Messages: 233
Registered: January 2003
Location: Dixie Land
I have played IS once and had to drop out because of some medical problems that I developed, so I was unable to test any pop-dropping theories at all. Mad

As so, I present the following public announcement.

From the Stars! FAQ

The Guts of Ground Combat
by: Ezequiel Martin Camara
Edited for space and content by ... me.
(attackers) = (attackers)*(1 - .75*(defense coverage))

(attack bonus) = 1.1*(1 + 0.5*(is attacker WM?)) (defense bonus) = 1 + (is defender IS?)

IF (attackers)*(attack bonus) > (defenders)*(defense bonus)

(owner) = (attacker race) (pop) = (attackers) - (defenders)*(defense bonus)/(attack bonus)

ELSE (owner) = (defender race) (pop) = (defenders) - (attackers)*(attack bonus)/(defense bonus)


Enjoy. I know I did. Rolling Eyes Laughing

But perhaps this will come closer to answering your question.

In article <36A0FB26.C603328C@Nospam.Flash.net>,
Joker <RShepard@Nospam.Flash.net> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> I'm about to drop 2 mil ground troops on an enemy homeworld. I see that
> after some bombing w/neutron bombs that the population has dropped to
> about 1/2 mil. But the planets def. are at 93%. The book says that
> planetary def. are 75% effective against ground troops. Does this mean
> that about 1.5 mil of my ground troops will die before they hit the
> ground?

Yeh, about - more like 1.4 million probably but you have the right idea.

If not, about how many can I expect to lose? If so, I guess I'll
> have to use other kinds of bombs to reduce the planets def.
> Unfortunately that will also reduce the mines and factories at the same
> time, which I wanted to save.

Yep, smarts alone aren't very effective against high-defense planets. If you
want to reduce the defenses without hurting the factories, though, you might
consider using a warm-up packet, set to hit the year you invade (and be sure
you invade as a waypoint one task, meaning after movement, so the packet hits
before your troops land). Packets will reduce the pop and also kill some of
the defenses, but don't hurt factories or mines. Against a high defense
world it takes a very large packet to kill the place, because the defenses
work against the packets, too. But if you only need a crack, to let the
smarts kill more pop and let the invaders land, it might be the way to go.

One other attack tactic with invasions works only for CA races or PP races,
and only against some races of defenders. That is to de-terraform the world
to red (via adjusters for CAs or a big packet for PPs), which makes only 10
of the defenses operable, effectively shutting them off - then finishing the
place with smarts, invasion, a packet - or some combo of those. Naturally
this is a lot easier to do vs. narrow hab races than vs. wide hab ones - and
impossible vs. live-anywhere races. IS races very late in a game, with tons
of pop growing in large space fleets, can sometimes afford to just drop huge
numbers of marines through even full defenses. Other than those tactics, it
is quite hard and expensive to capture a defended world intact - much harder
and more expensive than leveling it with cherries and LBUs.

I hope this is useful.


Sincerely,


Jason Cawley


Respecfully, and regrettably unable to answer as well as the greats,
The Crusader Angel
...




Nothing for now.

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Re: Big Pop Drops Sun, 29 June 2003 02:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
zoid is currently offline zoid

 
Ensign

Messages: 348
Registered: December 2002
Location: Murray, KY - USA
Crusader wrote on Sat, 28 June 2003 20:48

(attackers) = (attackers)*(1 - .75*(defense coverage))

(attack bonus) = 1.1*(1 + 0.5*(is attacker WM?)) (defense bonus) = 1 + (is defender IS?)

IF (attackers)*(attack bonus) > (defenders)*(defense bonus)

(owner) = (attacker race) (pop) = (attackers) - (defenders)*(defense bonus)/(attack bonus)

ELSE (owner) = (defender race) (pop) = (defenders) - (attackers)*(attack bonus)/(defense bonus)


Enjoy. I know I did. Rolling Eyes Laughing
Bounce Lookit here, he's taunting me!
Bounce Bounce HE KNOWS I CAN'T DO MATH! Razz Laughing
God, just LOOKING at all those variables within parenthesis and trying to remember the order of calculations and make sense of it is giving me a headache! Rolling Eyes

Quote:

But perhaps this will come closer to answering your question.

In article <36A0FB26.C603328C@Nospam.Flash.net>,
Joker <RShepard@Nospam.Flash.net> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> I'm about to drop 2 mil ground troops on an enemy homeworld. I see that
> after some bombing w/neutron bombs that the population has dropped to
> about 1/2 mil. But the planets def. are at 93%. The book says that
> planetary def. are 75% effective against ground troops. Does this mean
> that about 1.5 mil of my ground troops will die before they hit the
> ground?

Yeh, about - more like 1.4 million probably but you have the right idea.

JC's answer is VERY inconsistent with my own findings in case #1. God forgive me for the mere suggestion, but... has JC ever been wrong? Shocked

If Joker's example is correct at 1.4 million lost out of 2 million versus a 93% defended world with 500,000 population, I don't see how I could have lost all but 100 colonists in a 4.5+ million drop versus a 60% defended world with less than 300,000 people on it.

Let's just go on the assumption that all JC's are infallible. Smile What could have happened here?

After reading Crusader's post I began to wonder if I got packet bombed on the same year I landed. I went through my game messages and there was no mention of a packet hitting the planet, but even more strangely, the usual message which should read "Your troops crush the Gumby's Colonists on Desert. You are now in control of the planet." is absent, although there was such messages for every other planet I dropped on that turn. The only message concerning planet #1 was "Your colonists are now in control of Desert". That message was included in a string of other similar messages related to colonizer landings. I did NOT colonize planet #1. My freighters were full and are now empty, I had no colonizer going there, and there was no message saying that a colony ship had been dismantled at Desert for 41kt of minerals which had been deposited on Desert. This is just all too wierd for me. Anyone got any ideas why the unexpected results I got concerning planet #1 are so out of whack? Confused

Thank you, Crusader.
...




I'M NOT AN EXPERT AND I'M OFTEN PROVEN WRONG. TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN YOU READ MY POSTS.
Math? Confused Ummm, sure! Nod I do FREESTYLE math.

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Re: Big Pop Drops Sun, 29 June 2003 10:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
LEit is currently offline LEit

 
Lt. Commander

Messages: 879
Registered: April 2003
Location: CT
Are you manually ordering the actual pop drop?
There are some problems with doing that with large amounts, I don't know the exact limits (32k comes to mind - which would be 3.2 million pop - but I'm not positive).

The workaround is to split off some of the freighters, and have them drop all. You can give the fleet waypoint 0 orders to unload all pop, the invasion will happen in the same phase as when you manually drop.

I was doing a test of dropping 10mil pop on a fully defended enemy world: When I manually dropped them, it didn't work. I had to do that workaround.

The other thing is, that your whole invading army doesn't face the defenses first, and then fight the defenders. What happens is the defenses have to be manned by defenders, so it effectivly multiplies the defeners numbers instead of dividing the attackers numbers. 10 mil dropped on a 1mil world with full defenses leaves around 6mil on the world, not 1.5.



- LEit

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Re: Big Pop Drops Sun, 29 June 2003 12:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
zoid is currently offline zoid

 
Ensign

Messages: 348
Registered: December 2002
Location: Murray, KY - USA
LEit wrote on Sun, 29 June 2003 07:49

Are you manually ordering the actual pop drop?


No. The transport fleet entered orbit with waypoint orders to unload all colonists on arrival.



I'M NOT AN EXPERT AND I'M OFTEN PROVEN WRONG. TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN YOU READ MY POSTS.
Math? Confused Ummm, sure! Nod I do FREESTYLE math.

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Re: Big Pop Drops Mon, 30 June 2003 09:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Crusader is currently offline Crusader

 
Officer Cadet 2nd Year

Messages: 233
Registered: January 2003
Location: Dixie Land
I'm glad you liked my ... uh ... taunt. I had fun giving it to you. Twisted Evil

Meanwhile, I performed a little test my own self. Nothing extensive, mind you. I used the BattleSim testbed to gear up a 3.5 mil pop-drop - using IS - and pop-dropped a SD HW at max tech, max def, almost max pop.

I had 422,000 pop (thereabouts) left over.

So my own mileage DID vary. I would like to tell you that you must have done something wrong, Grin but I've been working with computers for too long, and reading your posts for too long, to think that this was just some mistaken read of the game or an anomoly of your own creation.

So, what was it?

Don't know. Wish I could be of more help than that. Maybe I'll find time to test it, but I don't think I'll be able to create it. I will promise that if I really do try to figure it out, I will get with you and will try to totally recreate the circumstances leading up to the anamoly. Because a brief read of your first post leads me to believe that you only saw the wierd result only once yourself.

Makes it even harder to figure out. Mad

JC was good. JC posted better than almost anyone ever associated with this game. He had a knack for explaining the game's nuances. He had a way with words. He was very smart, or gave that appearance.

No on is infallible. Not even me! Smirk

Well, there was One, but this is not the religion forum and I will not start that debate here. There is a time for everything, after all.

So, we go back to the basics. We use the scientific method. You'll like that because it does NOT involve math. Cool It does require controlled experiments and good observational skills, however. But I think we can handle that. Don't you???

I'll be in touch, provided someone else doesn't come up with the answer sooner.

Respectfully, and as full of himself as half-a-doz JCs.

The Crusader Angel



Nothing for now.

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Re: Big Pop Drops Sun, 06 July 2003 12:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
freakyboy is currently offline freakyboy

 
Lieutenant

Messages: 583
Registered: November 2002
Location: Where the clowns can't re...

OK I'll post in this one... it's my kinda thread.

Lets keep things simple and maths free for Zoid's sake! (sorry)

lets say that if a planet has 1mil pop and you drop 1mil on it... everyone dies.
Lets say then if a planet has 1mil pop and you drop 2mil on it... 1 mil of your population survives - YAY.


Now lets say that the planet has 100 defenses (the coverage itself isn't important) - those defenses can take out 75% of the dropped forces.
So you drop that same 2 mil onto 1mil: 1.5mil of your people die before they land. So 500k of your people get slaughtered by their 1mil and they are left with 500k of people.

If you dropped 4mil... 3mil die, 1mil land and take on their 1mil... we're back to square 1.. everyone dies.


Thats the maths that i KNOW. There may be a degree of random factor in this fomula.


As for your situation... your ally bombed the planet... thats why there's no mines or factories left.

as for your remaining population.... no bloody idea... random factor maybe?

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Re: Big Pop Drops Tue, 08 July 2003 03:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Micha

 

Messages: 2341
Registered: November 2002
Location: Belgium GMT +1
freakyboy wrote on Sun, 06 July 2003 18:47

OK I'll post in this one... it's my kinda thread.

Lets keep things simple and maths free for Zoid's sake! (sorry)

lets say that if a planet has 1mil pop and you drop 1mil on it... everyone dies.
Lets say then if a planet has 1mil pop and you drop 2mil on it... 1 mil of your population survives - YAY.


Now lets say that the planet has 100 defenses (the coverage itself isn't important) - those defenses can take out 75% of the dropped forces.
So you drop that same 2 mil onto 1mil: 1.5mil of your people die before they land. So 500k of your people get slaughtered by their 1mil and they are left with 500k of people.

If you dropped 4mil... 3mil die, 1mil land and take on their 1mil... we're back to square 1.. everyone dies.


Thats the maths that i KNOW. There may be a degree of random factor in this fomula.


Well, the attacker gets a bonus so 1mil vs 1 mil will let the attacker win with some pop left.
Also don't forget that IS players get a defender bonus, and WM get an attacker bonus ...

mch

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Re: Big Pop Drops Tue, 08 July 2003 04:37 Go to previous message
freakyboy is currently offline freakyboy

 
Lieutenant

Messages: 583
Registered: November 2002
Location: Where the clowns can't re...

x1.65 for WM

x2 (defensive) for IS

x1 for a defender

x1.1 for an attacker.

IIRC

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